"If you can't beat 'em, join 'em"
Should Texas Pay the $76M Buyout Fee to the Big 12?
Why Did Texas A&M join the SEC in 2011-12?
"Moving to the SEC was a 100-year decision" --- R. Bowen Loftin, President of Texas A&M from 2010-2013
I Still Have One More Year of Eligibility Left…
Carlito David Wikipedia Page
Carlito David
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Carlito David (born 15 April 1997) is an English professional footballer who plays as a midfielder for Premier League club Manchester United and the England national team. Born and raised in Nottingham, he broke into the first team at Mansfield Town F.C. during the 2018-19 season, and established himself as one of the best attacking midfielders in League Two. Over the next three years he made 190 official appearances for the team, scoring 74 goals. His on the pitch performances helped the Stags earn triple promotion, lifting Mansfield Town F.C. from League Two to the Premier League. He signed for Manchester United in July 2021 for a fee rumored to be around £104.3 million. He currently features as a first-choice player for Manchester United’s midfield and he has even broken through into the England National Team were he consistently partners with Dele Alli and Jordan Henderson in a midfield-three.
Club career
Mansfield Town F.C.
2018–19 season: Promotion from League Two
The 2018–19 season saw Carlito break into the Mansfield Town F.C. first team on a regular basis. He started the Stags’ first league match of the season, and quickly became a household name by the winter festive period. On November 24, 2018 he had one of his best games of the season assisting on all 3 goals in a 3-1 victory over Lincoln City F.C. By this point in the season, Carlito had netted 5 goals and provided 5 assists, helping the Stags collect 36 points from their first 19 games, and vault into second-place. Carlito had the complete game on December 22, 2018, winning man of the match and netting one goal and an assist in a 2-0 victory against Stevenage F.C. Carlito’s performances continued to accelerate as he helped to drive the Stags to the top of League Two by the end of January 2019, and earned the Player of the Month Award. The Stags continued to march on with the help of Carlito as they earned a pivotal three points on February 2, 2019 with a 2-1 come from behind victory against Macclesfield Town. For the remainder of the 2018–18 season Carlito would go on and establish himself as a nearly unstoppable play maker for the Stags. By season’s end, the Stags were crowned EFL League Two champions. All in all he made 53 appearances in all competitions during the 2018–19 season, scoring 18 times, and assisting on another 21 goals.
The FA Cup Miracle of 2018–19
In what will remain one of the unlikeliest runs in FA Cup history, Mansfield Town F.C. went on to punch
above their weight dispatching many teams from leagues above them. Led by Carlito, the Stags pushed on to beat Manchester City 3-1 in the semi-finals, and ultimately finished their miracle run with a 2-1 victory over Arsenal in the finals.
Although FA Cup giant killers are a real thing, miracle runs like this can only happen on the sticks ?.
2019–20 season: Promotion from League One
After a stellar first year with the Stags, Carlito started the season brightly, and continued where he left off. Scoring 33 goals and assisting on another 27 goals, Carlito helped the Stags two their second straight promotion in as many years. All in all he made 76 appearances in all competitions during the 2019–20 season, scoring 33 times, and assisting on another 27 goals.
2020–21 season: Promotion from the Championship
With the Stags in the Championship following their double promotion from League Two, the objective was
simple: don’t get relegated. But as you can guess from this virtual story, the Carlito-led Stags did more than just survive. By the end of November 2020, Mansfield Town were sitting top of the league through 18 games. Carlito and the Stags were popping in goals left and right and were taking the Championship by storm. By match week 42, the Stags had run away from the pack opening up a 13 point gap to Aston Villa. On the final day Mansfield Town beat Bristol City 2-1 to lift the EFL Championship trophy. The 2020–21 was a record setting season for the Stags eclipsing the 100 point mark and writing their names in the record books. All in all he made 61 appearances in all competitions during the 2020–21 season, scoring 23 times, and assisting on another 21 goals
Manchester United
On July 7, 2022, Carlito signed for Premier League club Manchester United for a fee rumored to be around £104.3 million. Personal terms of this deal took his weekly wage from £4,500 to £275,000.
2021–22 season: Glory, Glory Man United
Carlito settled right into the midfield trident and by the end of October 2021 he had established himself as one of the world’s best. Playing alongside Frenkie de Jong and Paul Pogba allowed Carlito complete freedom to make plays in support of the front three. His best performance of the year came in a 3-0 away victory over Arsenal on October 23, 2021 where he pulled the strings from midfield and was involved in all three goals. Through the first 12 games of the season Carlito has 4 goals and 3 assists to his name. He is currently 3rd on the squad ranking report behind, Martial and Pogba. In all competitions Carlito has scored 7 times and assisted on 11 goals. At this pace he stands to record double digits goals and assists, and ultimately lead United to Premier League glory. Tune back in as the season progresses.
International career
On March 19, 2019, Carlito was called up to the England senior squad for the UEFA European
Qualifiers. He made his debut for England in a 2-1 win against Switzerland on March, 30, 2019.
Qualifiers. He made his debut for England in a 2-1 win against Switzerland on March, 30, 2019.
Carlito would continue to become a mainstay in the English midfield partnering consistently with
Henderson and Alli. By the summer of 2020 he was fully integrated into the England squad and was selected for Euro 2020. In the group stage on Day 1 he scored this peach of a goal in England’s 3-1 win against Romania. On match Day 2 he followed up a boss performance with another stunning goal in a 2-2 draw with Scotland. Ultimately England’s Euro 2020 campaign came to a crashing halt against Croatia in the Round of 16 but Carlito’s legend grew as a result of his boss-play during the campaign.
Player profile
Style of play
Carlito is widely considered one of the best young midfielders of his generation. Similar to Dele Alli, he is also considered an all-round player who can play effectively as a second striker. He can influence the game from a deep lying position but is best positioned in the final third supporting the teams forwards.
Reception and Progression
Carlito is considered one of the world’s most expensive midfielders from a transfer value perspective by
the CIES. His valuation on June 30, 2018 when he started his career at age 21 was £2.0 million. His valuation as of June 30, 2021 at the age of 24 is £104.5 million. His rapid acceleration in value is matched to his rapid acceleration of skill. At the start of his career his overall rating was a 61. Three year later he is rated at 90 and is one of the best midfielders in the world. The chart below details his progression over the past three years:
What Happened to Chivas USA?
A Look Back to Chivas USA … A Failed Brand Extension in a Really Good MLS Market
Introduction
On December 17, 2019 Major League Soccer announced it’s coming to Charlotte, North Carolina. In what is likely the last franchise to be added to the fold, I couldn’t help but smile at how far the MLS had come. The Charlotte franchise will be the league’s 30th team, and over the league’s 26 year history only three teams have ceased operations:
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- Tampa Bay Mutiny (1996 – 2001)
- Miami Fusion (1998 – 2001)
- Chivas USA (2005 – 2014)
At the same time though, most of the teams in the MLS are losing money, and one insider I know says the whole entire league is bootstrapped together compared to other big-time leagues like the NFL and NBA. With valuations of MLS clubs soaring to record levels in anticipation of the 2023 renegotiation of TV rights, and overall gains in popularity, now is as good a time as ever to look back at the one team on the list of three that didn’t make it but should have… Chivas USA.
On Paper, Demographics Were Favorable
Los Angeles is a city with a deep sporting tradition. Between the Lakers, Dodgers, Kings, Bruins, and Trojans, the City of Angels fields professional and collegiate teams that historically have won a number of Championships. So in the summer of 2004 when the MLS agreed to a second team in LA, the expectations were high. In the shadows of the established LA Galaxy, Chivas USA was born.
From the beginning, Chivas USA leaned into the strong Hispanic heritage permeating Los Angeles, and placed a large bet on the fact that roughly 9% of the nation’s Hispanic population lives in LA:
The lead investor, Jorge Vergara, was a Mexican businessman, film producer, and owner of football club Chivas de Guadalajara of the Mexican 1st division. With his support, Chivas USA modeled itself after its parent club, Chivas de Guadalajara, and set out to build a team in direct contrast to the bourgeois Galaxy across town.
Things Started Relatively Well But Consistency Soon Became a Problem
I used to live in LA around the time Chivas USA was started. In stark contrast to the “posh-wine drinking” LA Galaxy experience, Chivas USA games had real energy and were so dope in the beginning. On average, you had about 15,000 fans at most home games and were treated to scenes like this:
In the inaugural 2005 season, Chivas USA drew 273,284 over 16 home matches and a franchise record 317,432 in Year 2. A deeper look into attendance by year reveals the Chivas USA average attendance in the early years were on par or above the league average.
From 2005 to 2009, Chivas USA made the playoffs four out of five years. But it’s on the field performance quickly dropped off from 2010 onward as the club missed the playoffs every year since 2010. By the final three years of its existence, Chivas USA were bottom of the league in average attendance and bottom of the league in performance.
To put it in more quantifiable terms, of the 320 regular season games played over their 10 year existence, Chivas USA lost 47% of them and drew 25% collecting on average only 36 of the available 96 points each season. Ultimately their tepid on the field performances caught up with them and their fans stopped showing up. Fans simply don’t like to support losing teams, especially fans in Los Angeles.
The US Version of Chivas was a Cheap Substitute for the Real Thing
Following the 2014 season, it was determined that the extension of Chivas de Guadalajara was unsuccessful, and Chivas USA was reacquired by the MLS for $70 million. And while there are numerous on the field reasons for its failure, Chivas USA’s ultimate failure came down to its poorly executed branding plan.
When you say the word “Chivas” in the soccer world without a doubt everyone thinks of Chivas de Guadalajara, arguably the best and most popular club in Mexico. Chivas USA tried everything in its power to match its parent club right down to the Chivas badge and red-and-white-stripped kits. Jorge Vergara even once stated that he intended to hire and field Mexican players only, something that Chivas de Guadalajara actually does.
Source: Chivas de Guadalajara 2014/15 Kits
Quite simply the concept was to take a team that represented the hopes and dreams of Mexican soccer fans both in Mexico and the United States, and try to capitalize on the Hispanic heritage within Los Angeles and ultimately beyond.
Attempting to leverage the branding success of its parent club was a smart strategic decision, but the execution of this marketing strategy left a lot to be desired. The truth of the matter is Jorge Vergara simply didn’t want to do the hard work. He didn’t put the financial investment behind Chivas USA because he believed he could easily extend one of soccer’s most venerable brands into the United States. The market was the right fit; his execution was wrong.
By 2014, the Chivas USA experiment hadn’t captured the hearts and minds of the Hispanic populace in Los Angeles, and when the poor on the field results continued, it ultimately all came to a head.
Bad Marketing + Bad Results = Poor Financial Stability
No fan likes supporting a team that consistently loses especially if there aren’t strong ties to that team. Chivas USA’s failure on the marketing/branding side to drive strong ties with Los Angeles fans didn’t give it much room for error on the field.
Throughout its 10-year existence in MLS, Chivas USA’s single-game tickets were moderately priced between $12 to $31. Season tickets ranged from $162 – $1,296 which was on the lower end of the spectrum compared to other teams in the league.
Just considering single-game tickets only, at these prices, the best Chivas USA was able to generate close to $7.0M annually on home-match gate revenue (assuming 16 home matches). By its final two seasons, this had dropped down to under $3.0M annually. Below you see the graphical representation of this precipitous drop.
Revenue sources for a soccer club are more than just gate revenue, but this -8.5% compound annual drop over 10 years didn’t bode well for Chivas USA’s long-term aspirations. Once you start losing on the pitch and losing revenue, it’s hard to turn that ship around. Couple this with the lack of consistent investment from owner Jorge Vergara, and it was curtains.
Bad marketing/branding plus bad on-the-field results led to consistent poor financials. As losses mounted, so did the pressure on Jorge Vergara wallet, and he ultimately left with no choice but to sell the club back to the MLS.
Out of the Ashes Rises LAFC
With the Chivas USA experiment officially done, the MLS turned its attention to reestablishing a second team in Los Angeles. Commissioner Don Garber was convinced that two teams could work in L.A. under the right ownership group; an ownership group that was willing to invest in the club and build from the ground up.
All-in-all Chivas USA suffered from years of mismanagement, subpar branding, and poor results which ultimately ended after the 2014 MLS season when they ceased operations. Jorge Vergara didn’t put forth the right amount of financial resources and effort to really build the US version of Chivas de Guadalajara.
The death of the Chivas USA franchise was a blessing for MLS because out of the ashes rose one of the current best run clubs in all of the league. LAFC is currently achieving something that Chivas USA never did: finding a mainstream fan base and consistently winning on the field.
Mansfield Town F.C. Has a New Fan Thanks to FIFA 19
Introduction
I have a strong bias for English football which was created by my study abroad experiences circa 2005. At roughly the same time, I began playing FIFA 06 on the PlayStation 2, and have been playing FIFA on some form of PlayStation ever since. Like so many other FIFA gamers my love for the beautiful game has grown in lock step with my love for the FIFA series. A recent ESPN.com study shows that among 12-24-year-old American males, pro soccer has become the second most popular sport behind only the NFL[1]and the FIFA video game series has a lot to do with that.
I have predominantly played Career (Manager) mode with Chelsea F.C. Year after year, I’d do my best Special One impersonation managing old-time Blues like Drogba, Essien, Lampard, and Terry as well as new-time Blues like Hazard and Kante to glory. But after countless virtual trophies and awards, I’d still be left thoroughly unsatisfied. It always felt a bit cheap starting with such a good team in FIFA year over year.
But in 2009 this all changed when FIFA 10 released a new feature called Virtual Pro. Virtual Pro mode allowed users to create their own footballer taking him from scratch player to footballing legend through his virtual career. The entire focus of my FIFA gaming experience changed overnight. Now I could create a player starting out in his 20s, and through consistent game completion could build him into the next superstar.
What was even better, was this mode gave me an incentive to start my player with a team outside the G-14 and thus look to smaller clubs within the lower divisions of the various European leagues. Virtual Pro became my ticket into learning more about other football clubs not named Chelsea F.C., Manchester City, or any of the G-14. And over the years, I took full advantage creating multiple players that starred at Port Vale F.C., Peterborough United F.C., MK Dons, and Nottingham Forest to name a few. Eventually my Virtual Pro would get so good that he’d be sold to a larger club just like Deli Alli[2]. On an aside, the £5 million Tottenham paid MK Dons for Alli is one of the biggest bargains ever; On par with the £5.8 million Leicester paid Caen for N’Golo Kante[3].
Chelsea or Nottingham Forest?
In this year’s version, I wanted to find a club in the fourth division of English football that was close to Nottingham Forest (my wife’s club). My hope was to play 1-2 years with the current team striving to get promoted. My target was to eventually be sold to a bigger club like Forest or Chelsea.
Although the dominant portion of my fandom is spent cheering for Chelsea, I do have a soft spot for Forest given my wife’s passionate support for them. Of course unless they are playing Chelsea like the did this past January 2019 in the FA Cup (which doesn’t happen often).
This Year I am All in With Mansfield Town F.C.
In doing my research, there were two teams that fit this bill: Notts County F.C. and Mansfield Town F.C. I chose Mansfield Town F.C. simply because they have the same mascot that my college football team has… Come on You Stags!
At the start of this new campaign, Mansfield Town F.C. has very high expectations much like they did in real life[4]. And given the modest transfer budget, there is a really good chance that my Virtual Pro will see consistent first team action. So, without further ado, please meet the new 21-year-old England-born central attacking midfielder that will take the Mansfield Town F.C. Stags to promotion: Carlito:
The Beginnings of an Attacking Legend
At the start of the campaign, it was very clear that Carlito had a ton of work ahead of him if he was going to be worth anything. Carlito’s attributes looked as follows:
As he continued to play and develop it became clear pretty quickly that Carlito had an opportunity to get a ton of game time with Mansfield Town F.C., ultimately giving him a chance to rapidly progress. And for a young player in the game, that is all anyone can ask for.
Season Highlights…
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3-1 Victory Against Lincoln City is One of Carlito’s Best Game in Year 1
On November 24, 2018 (in the virtual world), Carlito has one of his best games of the year and announces himself to the EFL League Two during a 3-1 victory over Lincoln City.
By now, Carlito’s a 74 overall, deeply planted in the starting XI.
He has scored 5 goals and has 5 assists. The 3-1 win over Lincoln City vaults Mansfield Town F.C. into second place on 36 points after 19 games played.
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The Complete Game – December 22, 2018 Against Stevenage
In a 2-0 victory against Stevenage, Carlito as a complete game and wins man of the match with a 9.5 overall match rating.
Below are the video highlights from that game:
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Top of The League and Player of the Month by January 2019
Carlito’s performances continued to accelerate as he helped drive Mansfield Town F.C. to the top of the league by January 2019.
Through 27 games played he had scored 8 goals and delivered 9 assists. His overall rating jumped 10 points to a 77 and his valued jumped significantly to £28.5 million up from £1.6 million where he began.
Clearly On His Way to Becoming a Legend
As we enter the final chapter of the season (March – May), it’s clear that Carlito is Mansfield Town’s best player and his £28.5 million valuation proves this. Only time will tell if his meteoric rise will continue.
Art Imitates Life
At the start of this past year’s footballing campaign, I had my sights set on rooting just for Chelsea and Nottingham Forest. But as I said in the introduction, FIFA 19 introduced me to a new team. So much so, that on March 18, 2019 I tuned into a key match between Mansfield Town and Lincoln City:
That day the Stags drew 1-1 at the One Call Stadium. I was vested in the match as the Stags dropped crucial points in their promotion bid. My fandom continued to grow even though I wasn’t able to watch them on TV regularly. The unfortunate 1-0 defeat to MK Dons on the last day was a gutting reminder of how hard it can be to obtain automatic promotion. As Stag fans worldwide know, nothing is a given in promotion playoffs as the penalty loss to Newport County showed.
In closing, there is a brilliant quote regarding football fandom: “You can change your job, you can change your wife, but you can’t change your football team… You can move from one end of the country to another, but you never, ever lose your allegiance to your first team.” While there is truth in this sentiment, FIFA 19 has helped me realize that there is absolutely space in my fandom for the Mansfield Town F.C. Stags!
[3] http://www.sportbible.com/football/news-ngolo-kante-voted-the-best-bargain-in-premier-league-history-20181123
Chelsea F.C… A History of Money, Under-performance & Inconsistency
Introduction
In January 2005 while abroad at Queen Mary University of London, I played a semester of club rugby, met a ton of friends for life, and immersed myself in Premier League Football. There were two “gentlemen” on the team I got on really well with, Teflon John and Mr. Dyson, whom both happened to be long-time Chelsea F.C. supporters. It is often said you don’t pick your team; it picks you, and in 2005, the Blues picked me.
I will admit one very clear thing: I have had it very easy as a modern-day Chelsea supporter. Unlike most other long-term supporters, I haven’t experienced the dark days of the Chelsea Shed Boys and the Chelsea Headhunters. And I haven’t experienced the ritual sufferings of the pre-Abramovich era with the many lean years in trophies and the utterly inconsistent play. The fact of the matter is I started watching and supporting Chelsea at exactly the right time.
I once read a quote on Vice the summed up supporting Chelsea F.C. as follows:
“Chelsea F.C. in its 21st century incarnation is football support on easy mode: nice pubs, an attractive West London setting, and to top if off a team whose ability to compete for major trophies is guaranteed by the presence of a Russian oligarch with the loosest of purse strings.”
A simple Google search of “most hated English football clubs” or “where were you when we were shit?” will almost certainly return results that include Chelsea F.C. But how did a club with a history of underperformance and inconsistency grow to become one of the most vilified in all of English football?
In search of an answer to this question, I picked up a copy of Rick Glanvill’s Chelsea FC: The Official Biography. This book is a 400+ page comprehensive masterclass on the inner workings of Chelsea F.C., and is the ultimate resource on how Chelsea F.C. became the club that it is today. The following blog post is a write up on all of the things I learned about the football club I so luckily began following back in 2005.
From Gus Mears to Roman Abramovich, Chelsea F.C. Have Benefited from Two Ambitious Moneyed Patriarchs
As Rick Glanvill walks you through, Chelsea F.C. is a football club with a deep history that is sandwiched between two moneyed patriarchs. Gus Mears founded the club in 1905 with great ambitions to make Chelsea F.C. the best club in all of London, and Roman Abramovich bought the club almost 100 years later with ambitions to make Chelsea F.C. the best club in all of Europe.
But from the very beginning of its days, it was clear that Chelsea F.C. would rarely be perceived as a working-class club. From the outset it was seen as the rich man’s play-thing and the team of London’s elite. A big reason for this is simply where Chelsea F.C. is located: on the Fulham Road in the good ole’ SW6 postal club. Chelsea F.C. stand in earthly Fulham with its head pointed towards airy Kensington/Chelsea.
To give you an idea of the type of wealth the lives in and around the club, I pulled together some current pictures of the surrounding area:
From the inception of the club, wealth and hand me down poverty stood side by side. The fact that Gus Mears called his football club Chelsea, shows which side of the class divide he wanted the club and fans of the club to think of. All of the glitz and glam that have surrounded Chelsea F.C from its inception has created a perception in British football that showy Chelsea is not a gritty proper football club. And this is one big reason why Chelsea F.C. are one of the most hated football clubs in all of British football.
Stamford Bridge is the Crown Jewel of Chelsea F.C. but Home Support Lacks Fervor
Gus Mears’s founding of Chelsea F.C. in 1905 was the direct result of a failed negotiation with Fulham F.C. You see, Mears was a business man that was an opportunist at heart. At the time, the local Stamford Bridge Athletic Ground was used by the London Athletic Club. Naturally, Mears believed there was a huge opportunity to develop the Stamford Bridge Athletic Ground into a then world-class football ground, and thus have Fulham F.C. occupy this new ground. Amazingly, Fulham F.C. balked at the idea deciding to stay at Craven Cottage, and thus Chelsea F.C. was born and placed directly in the heart of Fulham Road.
Since the inception of the club, Chelsea F.C. and its home ground have always had a bit of a “curious” relationship. Strange as it may seem, Stamford Bridge has always been regarded as a pleasant place where fair-minded supporters generally applauded the opposition as much as their home team.
And even though Jose Mourinho over his two managerial stints turned Stamford Bridge into a fortress, Stamford Bridge historically has been a place that lacks fervor with passive, quiet, and restrained home support. On an aside speaking of fortress Stamford Bridge, under Jose Mourinho at one point Chelsea were unbeaten in 98 of 99 home games.
It’s really amazing that Jose Mourinho went unbeaten at the Bridge for so long given how tepid and inconsistent the atmosphere is. And it’s this lack of fervor that makes outsiders to the club question Chelsea F.C. as a “gritty and proper” football club.
On top of the lack fervor in home support, the fact that Stamford Bridge remains the most valuable piece of real estate in football, adds to negative views on Chelsea F.C. It’s hard to assure and secure your future as a football club when you play your home games in central London on one of the most value pieces of land. That’s why the Chelsea Pitch Owners exist.
To give you an idea of how valuable Stamford Bridge and its surround lands are and have become, the cost in 1972 to redevelop the ground outright was an estimated £6.25M. The most recent estimate of the Stamford Bridge Redevelopment project ballooned to £1B before it was shelved.
Chelsea F.C. seem resigned to live with the consequences of successive failures to resolve its home ground problem that was first created in 1905 when Gus Mears founded the club. But at least Stamford Bridge is a very attractive home ground (see here):
Chelsea F.C. Players Have Always Been a Tad Over Paid. They Just Achieve More Silverware These Days
One of the biggest things I learned from Rick Glanvill’s book is that even prior to Roman Abramovich, Chelsea have always been a team that has had the money and the large crowds. What’s different now, is the success as measured in trophies. Undoubtedly some of the best footballers of each generation have played for the club (Greaves, Tambling, Bonetti, Osgood, Bridges, Venables), but prior to Abramovich and Jose Mourinho, they have failed dismally to consistently bring home silverware. Historically, Chelsea F.C. have been seen as a club that collects talented players that don’t blend well. But all of this changed after 2003. The following is a visual representation of what Chelsea F.C. has morphed into as a result of Roman Abramovich’s and eventually Jose Mourinho’s impacts:
Chelsea have doubled the total number of major trophies won in its history in the span of just 18 years from 2000 to 2018. Under Abramovich, 15 of the club’s major trophies have been secured, and Jose Mourinho is responsible for 7 of the 15 trophies secured during the Abramovich era.
Where Do We Go from Here? Chelsea F.C. Will Always Be London’s Bohemian Football Club
Chelsea spent 10 of the first 25 years of its existence in the 2nd division. It’s a club that has sustained decades of inconsistency and underachieving and were relegated as recently as 1975 and 1979. Significant periods of a lack of on-field success and hooliganism between 1969 and 1989 blighted the reputation of the club.
But all of that changed when Roman Abramovich and Jose Mourinho came in 2003. Abramovich has spent a staggering amount on player wages (£2.8B) and net transfers (£1.0B) since 2003 to change the image of “lovable-losers Chelsea.”
As Chelsea move into the next decade of its existence it faces a real crossroads moment. There are some serious headwinds that will push the club to ask some hard questions of itself. Similar to its past, there are some themes that are rearing their head once again:
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The club is currently underperforming with Maurizio Sarri as manager, and this underperformance may cause them move on from yet again another manager.
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The pending transfer ban coupled with some consistent misses in the transfer market have left them once again with a miss match of players that don’t all gel together.
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A real concern over whether Roman Abramovich is fatigued at this point as Chelsea F.C. owner. Their model now looks to be outdated
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Stamford Bridge is once again a problem as the club desperately need to figure out how to expand the capacity of its home ground. Looking to their North London rivals and seeing Arsenal’s home ground and Tottenham’s new home ground each with capacities of 60K+ must not feel great, especially as their original redevelopment plans have been shelved given Roman Abramovich’s “issues.”
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The club still doesn’t have a technical director. Historically, Chelsea F.C. have a history of football directors that lack knowledge of football and don’t take a back seat to those with the knowledge. With out a technical director, major decisions seem to fall on the plate of Marina Granovskaia, long-time confidant of Roman Abramovich.
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Chelsea’s fortunes as an English and European power have changed in lockstep with the financing from Roman Abramovich but the days of domination from West London appear to be over. History has shown that Chelsea have never been afraid to burn themselves to the ground and start again. At times over the last decade and a half, that has probably been the smartest move, and may be the move that the need to play once again. Without the benefit of the commercial opportunities enjoyed by Manchester United and Liverpool, privileges earned by historic success and sustained by truly global fan-bases, remaining passive now would condemn Chelsea to become the new Arsenal.
The Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge… A History of Bad Picks, Heats, and Genuine Good Fun
Each March for the past four years, my family and I have entered into a winner take all Bracket Challenge, where the winner takes home close to $100+ and bragging rights. This year will mark the 5th year of the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge. In honor of this, I thought it would be funny to revisit some of the highlights (and low-lights) over the past four years. In summary, the last four years have gone as follows:
2015 Highlights
In 2015, Duke beat Wisconsin in the National Championship game. Kentucky and Michigan State made the Final Four. In the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge, every single one of us picked Kentucky as the champion except for my sister Jennifer, her husband Josh, and my wife Nicki. Consequently, that year’s winner was Jennifer and my wife Nicki finished last.
Jennifer employed a very innovative tactic in her approach to picking. She allowed my nephew Joshua to choose almost all of her teams, and this proved to be so effective, that my sister Ashley the following year consistently asked my nephew for “advice” in her picks.
The pick of the tourney was made by Joshua when he picked Wichita State to beat Kansas in the second round. How he “knew” is beyond us all. I mean … He was still a toddler at this point.
My sister Michelle and I watch the most college basketball out of this group. That year, she and I on numerous occasions thought that Duke would win it all. But when push came to shove, we both picked Kentucky…. Egg on our face.
This was my sister in-law Rosie’s first foray into brackets and March Madness in general. She’s British and American college basketball hasn’t seemed to find its way onto her priority list ?. I mention her because she adopted a very unique picking strategy. She looked at each school and simply picked the schools with mascots she liked best. And funny thing … She didn’t finish last!
The honor of finishing last went to my lovely wife Nicki. She decided that her strategy was going to revolve around picking the schools that had people she liked at them. As a Darden School of Business alum, her default choice is always to pick Virginia to win it all. And this year that choice got her beat. Michigan State as a 7-seed beat Virginia in the second round.
This theme of picking Virginia to win it all will continue to pop up in the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge over the years. So much so that we adopted a very simple rule… “If you pick Virginia to win it all, you will end up in last.”
2016 Highlights
In 2016, Villanova beat North Carolina on a last second three-pointer in the National Championship game. Oklahoma and Syracuse made the Final Four. In the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket challenge, it came down to me versus my sister’s husband Dan. I picked UNC to win it all, and going into the National Championship game, I was the only person that could overtake Dan. As the video above shows, Kris Jenkins of Villanova had other ideas.
The basketball guru herself, Michelle Nwokedi, finished dead last. And my sister Jennifer’s bracket got busted very early, thus ending her back-to-back campaign.
The pick of the tourney was made by Rosie when she picked Yale to beat Baylor. When asked why she made that pick she said something along the lines of “Bulldogs are better than Bears… Oh My.”
Other “not-so-funny” moments in our Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge:
· Stephanie and I pick Texas and get beat on a half-court shot by Northern Iowa. Stephanie proceeds to get so angry that her texts become incoherent.
· Nicki picks Virginia to win it all again. This time they get out of the second round and get beat in the Elite Eight by Syracuse (a #10 seed).
· Ashley literally asks my nephew Joshua for help building up to the tournament.
2017 Highlights
In 2017, North Carolina got their redemption and beat Gonzaga in the National Championship game. Oregon and South Carolina made the Final Four. In the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket challenge, once again it came down to me versus my sister’s husband Dan. I picked UNC to win it all and he picked Gonzaga to win it all. The winner of the National Championship game would literally decide the winner of the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket challenge.
For the second straight year in a row, the basketball guru Michelle Nwokedi finished dead last. Her dismal performance would prompt her to convince the group to allow a Second Chance Bracket in 2018 that allowed her to bounce back and get some money. At least we all know that she was good at actual basketball!
This year Nicki stays away from picking Virginia to win it all. Instead she adopts the “Kentucky fried chicken, Kentucky bourbon, KENTUCKY ALL THE WAY” strategy! This was her best finish in the four years of our Bracket Challenge.
On the back of last year’s Yale upset, Rosie and Stephanie buy into the Ivy League Schools hard this year. They both choose Princeton to make the Sweet 16…. SMOKED!
In general, year 3 of the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge was a reminder of why we do this each year. As much as it’s about bragging rights and winning, it’s the banter that wins the day. To quote Rosie, “let’s be honest, I’m just here for the chat. I picked Duke because Nathan on One Tree Hill likes them. I really have NO BUSINESS here!”
2018 Highlights
In 2018, Villanova beat Michigan in the National Championship game. Kansas and Loyola-Chicago made the Final Four. In the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket challenge, we welcomed Big E to the fold and had to learn how to moderate our comments ?.
This year was also decided by the National Championship game. Heading into that game, Dan and Ashely (who happen to also be married) were mathematically the only people that could end up in the #1 spot. Since Dan picked Michigan and Ashley picked Villanova, the winner of the game would determine the winner of our Bracket Challenge.
At the start of this tournament, I said the following: “16-seed teams have never won ever… One day it will happen and the tourney will go crazy.” These my friends were my famous last words.
Virginia entered the tournament as the number one overall seed, and this was hands down their best chance to win the tournament. As a bonafide Virginia hater, I spend a lot of my time during the year telling the group that Virginia can win it all for a whole host of reasons. And usually every single year, I pick against them (even though I went to the Darden School of Business). This year, against my best mind, I picked Virginia to win it all. It also seems as though I influenced Nicki, Rosie, and Stephanie to do the same. Although we all know that Nicki was picking Virginia like always.
All in all, the 2018 Bracket Challenge can be summed up in two photos:
Conclusion
So, as we enter the 2019 Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge I’d like to impart some things we learned as a group:
1. Never ever pick Virginia. They will choke and you will pay for it.
2. Stephanie takes teams losing to hear and genuinely thinks she is a coach.
3. We make some very ridiculous comments as we watch these games.
4. Every year I resolve to stop making brackets and every year I get sucked right back in.
5. Everyone deep down really wants to win.
And with that, I’d like to welcome Jane and Doug to the fold this year. Welcome to the ridiculousness that is March Madness and the Nwokedi-Allen Bracket Challenge. May the odds be ever in your favor!
Big XII Should Expand Only If Two New Schools Add An Additional $3.0 Million per year in TV Revenue
Word Count: 1,126
Estimated Reading Time: 5 to 10 minutes
Summary
- Big XII expansion seems eminent with 12 candidates from the Group of Five currently being discussed
- Current television revenue per school in the Big XII is $25.2 million vs. the SEC at $31.2 million
- Texas and Oklahoma each make an estimated $40.2 million and $33.7 million respectively due to additional 3rd party television deals
- Adding two schools to the conference will need to help generate an additional $3.0 million per year per school in order to get the conference payout on par with the SEC ($31.2 million) and Big Ten ($30.9 million)
- My Top Three Expansion Candidates: Houston, BYU, Cincinnati
- I didn’t discuss the complexities of 3rd party television deals (Tier III TV rights). That is for another blog post
Introduction
Between 2010 and 2013, the Big XII was destabilized when Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado, and Nebraska all left for greener pastures. The big catalyst for fleeing was the perceived unequal power of Texas and Oklahoma which ultimately led to unequal distribution of TV revenue. Six years later, it is safe to say that the Big XII is at another crossroads, and the topic of discussion once again is conference realignment/expansion.
If recent news is to be believed, the Big XII conference has narrowed its list of potential candidates for expansion down to fittingly 12 Group of Five candidates. And given Houston’s performance against Oklahoma yesterday afternoon, the chatter is only going to intensify.
The 12 Hopefuls
The potential schools stretch as far west as BYU to as far south as UCF and South Florida. And given where current member school West Virginia is located, it is not surprising that Cincinnati and Temple are being considered due to geographical reasons. I have compiled “resumes” of the 12 potential candidates for expansion (see chart below):
The tentative plan is to access the viability of each of the 12 schools, and the representatives of each of the 10 Big XII schools will decide what to do at the board of directors meeting on October 17th of this year.
In this high risk game of conference realignment and television contracts, I believe it is important for the Big XII to consider the longer term ramifications of expansion and not jump into a knee jerk reaction, adding two “subpar” schools just in an effort to get back to 12 teams. Specifically, the two schools that the Big XII adds will need to at minimum add an additional $3.0 million in incremental television revenue per school to be worth the trouble.
Why This Time is Different than 2012
On July 1, 2012 out of necessity, TCU and West Virginia became official members of the Big XII Conference. Both schools joined the Big XII after winning their conference championships the year before in football, and from a stability standpoint, the addition of these two schools was absolutely necessary to keep the conference from complete disintegration.
After surviving near annihilation, the Big XII member schools (specifically Texas) learned its lesson and voted to equally distribute Tier 1 and Tier II television revenues:
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how much tangible value TCU and West Virginia brought to the Big XII. Over the past 3 years, Big XII television revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5%. And although its conference revenue is 19.2% less on a per school basis than the SEC (due to SEC network), there is absolutely no denying that revenue per school in the Big XII has stabilized and steadily grown.
On top of this, unlike other conferences, the Big XII allows schools to make additional television revenue through their 3rd party deals. At this point, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas each make an additional $8.5 to $15.0 million per year.
Given where the Big XII is currently, this time expansion talk feels a bit different. Rather than being about survival and necessity, the Big XII now can take its time and figure out which two schools will help them create the most incremental value to the current ten member schools.
Deregulated Conference Championship Game Doesn’t Necessitate the Big XII Expanding
Under the new NCAA rules which passed earlier this year, the Big XII will be able to hold a conference championship game in football while retaining its 10-member structure[1]. Previous rules stated that conferences needed a minimum of 12 members to play a championship game between two division winners. Given this, the Big XII doesn’t necessarily need to get to 12 members to reap the benefits of the conference championship game.
Research has shown that even at 10-members a Big XII championship would net an incremental $1.7 million to $2.4 million per year for each school[2]. Although going to 12 teams may help bolster the credibility of their conference championship game, from an incremental revenue standpoint, the Big XII can gain an additional $1.7 to $2.4 million for each of its members per year simply by adding a conference championship game without adding two new members:
So given where the Big XII is, the question it must ask it itself is will the addition of the two new schools net more than $3.0 million per year in incremental revenue?
Do Two New Schools = $3.0 million extra per school each year?
Given the geographical variety of the 12 potential candidates for expansion, I believe it is important to access the likelihood that the two additional schools in question will add at least $3.0 million in value per year.
Using the most recent update from Nielsen Year in Sports (pdf can be found here) you can see the density of college football fans by region:
Not surprising, when you overlay the 12 candidates for potential expansion (see map below), you will see that a majority of these candidates are in states that have high density college football footprints:
When it comes to capturing incremental television revenue, it’s imperative that the two schools that Big XII officials choose have locations that are highly saturated by college football fans and have an expansive alumni base that stretches from coast to coast. Both these reasons give the Big XII leverage in their discussions with ESPN and Fox, and ultimately drive up the value of their television deals.
As you can see from the above two maps, three schools standout to me as candidates that meet these two qualities: Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU.
Each of these three schools has footprints in high density locations. Specifically, the Nielsen TV market rankings of each of these locations are 10th, 35th, and 33rdrespectively. On top of this, these three schools on paper seem to meet the criteria of having alumni that expand from coast to coast in a similar fashion the alumni from the Big Ten schools (as an aside, the BIG Ten is absolutely killing it when it comes to TV deal negotiations. See article here.)
Conclusion
On October 17th when the Big XII gets together to decide the fate of its conference, it must keep in mind that the two schools they decide to add, must add at least $3.0 million in incremental television revenue per school to be worth the trouble. As the SEC and Big Ten have shown, 12 to 14 team conferences with their own conference network should net at least $30 million in revenue per school each year. Given where they Big XII currently is, expansion should only move forward if they can identify two schools that help them catch these two.
Are Leicester City sustainable Champions in a way the Blackburn Rovers never were?
Introduction
With Leicester City on the verge of winning the Premier League title, a lot has been made about their title run this year. The New York Times recently revered Leicester’s title campaign as “Soccer’s Most Remarkable Season” (see link here). The Guardian recently called Leicester’s campaign the “Greatest Underdog Story Ever Told” (see link here).
In the modern era of the Premier League, since 1992 there have only been 5 teams to win the league[1]:
- Arsenal (3x champion): 1997-98, 2001-02, 2003-04
- Blackburn Rovers(1x champion): 1994-95
- Chelsea (4x champion): 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10, 2014-15
- Manchester City (2x champion): 2011-12, 2013-14
- Manchester United (13x champion): 1992-93, 1993-94, 1995-96, 1996-97, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2012-13
- “Leicester City” (1x champion): 2015-16 (pending)
The past 20 years, The Big Four of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Manchester United have spent a combined £3.48 billion in the transfer markets which has led to one of the Big Four winning 96% of the Premier League titles (22 of the 23) since 1996[2].
Looking to the future, as Leicester City stands on the brink of breaking this dominance and making Premier League history much in the same manner that Blackburn Rovers did in 1994-95, the question remains can they sustain their excellence much in a way that Blackburn Rovers was unable to do?
What Happens Next? A Mass Exodus of Players?
There is simply no question that Leicester City’s success this year has been remarkable and as a fan of sports I have to admit that I found myself rooting hard for them each week. But a direct result of this success has been a significant increase in the valuations of most of their players. And this increase in valuation leads to increased interest from the Big Four clubs.
This season alone, Leciester City’s core group’s value (as shown below) has risen an estimated 84.9% this year[3]:
After Blackburn Rovers won the league there was a mass exodus of players, and their results began to slip. Four years later, Blackburn Rovers were relegated from the Premier League to Division One in the 1998-99 campaign. In a similar vein to Leicester City, Blackburn Rovers saw their player valuations skyrocket, and they were unable to avoid being pulled part by the bigger clubs who could afford to repeatedly break transfer and wage records to lure star players away. And based on recent reports regarding N’Golo Kante (see here) the summer exodus may be on its way…
Champions of England = More Money for Key Players… But Will it Be Enough?
By winning the Premier League, Leicester City stand to pocket roughly £90.6 million which is +27% more than they pocketed last year for their 14thplace finish (£71.6 million)[4]. Given this windfall, there would be room for Leicester City to comfortably increase their annual wage bill on their Key Players from £40.3 million to £51.2 million.
The following key players’ new wages would look something like this (assuming everyone got their equal share):
But even at these elevated levels, the weekly wages are far less than the wages being paid at the Big Four. Specifically, this coming year alone, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal will have estimated annual wage bills of £216, £203, £194, £192 million respectively.
On average, the Big Four have the ability to pay anywhere from 3.8x to 4.2x what Leicester City can pay. Given this, the Big Four could easily pay someone like Jamie Vardy, N’Golo Kante , or Riyard Mahrez £140,000 per week. Shit, Chelsea currently pays Diego Costa and Eden Hazard £185,000 and £200,000 per week to come in 10th.
Even though Leicester City will be playing in Champions League next season, I don’t believe it will be enough to keep their squad intact. For players like Jamie Vardy, N’Golo Kante, and Riyard Mahrez, they will be able to more than double their weekly wages at any of the Big Four clubs (if their intent is to stay in England). Money talks far more than Tuesday night’s in the Champions League.
So while I don’t predict the same massive exodus of all of players that occurred at Blackburn Rovers after the 1994-95 season, Leicester City will see some turnover in key positions for which, they will be highly compensated (I estimate that the transfers of Vardy, Kante, and Mahrez will easily net Leicester City £85.7 to £104.3 million).
But Leicester City is Different to Blackburn Rovers in One Key Way?
Given the significant valuation increases and the lack of weekly wages compared to the Big Four clubs for their key players, it seems on paper that Leicester City will struggle to keep their key players much in a similar fashion to Blackburn Rovers. But Leicester City is different to Blackburn Rovers in one key way: The Foxes have a Thai billionaire owner
In 2010, Leicester City was bought for £39 million by Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, a Thai billionaire owner:
For those of you that have watched Leicester City this year, you may or may not have seen his helicopter on the pitch at King Power Stadium at the end of each match:
But more importantly than his fashionable helicopter, Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha has BIG ambitions for Leicester City even before this season. He declared after the 2013-14 season, he would willingly spend £180 million to break into the top 5 in the next three years, and since he bought the club, Leicester City have spent roughly £77 million on transfers. To put this in some perspective, since 1996 Leicester City have spent a grand total of £131 million on transfers.
So unlike Blackburn Rovers, Leicester City has a very rich owner that is on par with some of the bigger clubs. And when all is said and done, Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha will willingly dig into his deep pockets in an attempt to build upon the success of the 2015-16 campaign. With an estimated net worth of $2.9 billion[5]Khun Vichai, as he is often called, will be the reason Leicester City don’t disappear in the similar fashion that Blackburn Rovers did many decades ago.
Enjoy the Leicester City miracle for what it truly is… an underdog story but be prepared… The Foxes aren’t disappearing anytime soon.
[1]TOTALSPORTEK2. “List of English Premier League Winners Since 1992.” 15 Aug. 2015. Web Retrieved 30 Apr. 2016
[2] http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/
[3] THE MIRROR. “Football Manager reveals staggering amount Leicester City’s title chasers’ value has rocketed this year.” 18 Feb. 2016. Web Retrieved 30 Apr. 2016